Strong/gusty winds continue this morning across NE OK/NW AR ahead of upper wave lifting into the central plains. 40-45 mph will remain possible through mid morning before pressure gradient begins to relax as Pacific front moves through the area. A limited fire danger threat will continue ahead of front this morning due to the strong winds and behind boundary this afternoon as a drier air-mass filters into the region. Unseasonably warm conditions expected on Wednesday ahead of Arctic front and fire weather will remain a concern, especially across northeast Oklahoma where limited moisture return is expected.
Focus quickly shifts to the winter weather threat late week into the weekend with the potential for significant ice accumulations across portions of northeast Oklahoma and heavy rainfall across the remainder of the area. Arctic front will move into northeast
Oklahoma late Wednesday night/Thursday morning and is expected to sweep south into far southeast Oklahoma by Thursday evening before stalling. Precipitation will begin to increase in coverage north of the front late Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of strong upper level storm system moving through northern Baja.
Models in general agreement with developing inverted surface trough/low into far NE OK/NW AR during the day Friday which will likely keep temperatures well above freezing. West of feature northerly winds will persist Friday night into Saturday with the threat for freezing rain along/north of Interstate 44. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact location of boundary/low level thermal profiles during this time and forecast ice amounts will likely be refined in the coming days.
Upper low will shift out of the desert southwest Sunday into Sunday night with another round of heavy rain, including a few thunderstorms depending on how far north warm sector lifts. Could see a lingering chance for light wintry mix across far northeast Oklahoma behind system into Monday but any accumulations would likely be limited.