Severe Weather Likely Today and Tonight

Oct 13, 2012

The Storm Prediction Center says severe thunderstorms are possible today across the southern and central Plains as a cold front rolls out of the Rockies.

Humid air could extend well into the Mississippi and Missouri valleys, making the atmosphere ripe for storms. The forecasters say the greatest chance for bad weather is from eastern Oklahoma to northeastern Iowa, including parts of Kansas and Missouri, but that storms are also possible from Texas into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Supercells with hail and possibly tornadoes could occur, especially before the storms form a squall line.

Below is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Tulsa:

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADO. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET....LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...SIGNIFICANT. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON. AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON. POOR VISIBILITY. RISK...ELEVATED. AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ONSET...ONGOING. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END LATE TONIGHT AS STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...INCLUDING SPOTTER ACTIVATION. PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS. WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF SYSTEM.