Latest Information:
Local & Regional
9:06 am
Sat October 13, 2012

Severe Weather Likely Today and Tonight

The Storm Prediction Center says severe thunderstorms are possible today across the southern and central Plains as a cold front rolls out of the Rockies.

Humid air could extend well into the Mississippi and Missouri valleys, making the atmosphere ripe for storms. The forecasters say the greatest chance for bad weather is from eastern Oklahoma to northeastern Iowa, including parts of Kansas and Missouri, but that storms are also possible from Texas into Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Supercells with hail and possibly tornadoes could occur, especially before the storms form a squall line.

Below is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Tulsa:

...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA....EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET....LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

POOR VISIBILITY.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE STRONGER STORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE YESTERDAYS
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END LATE
TONIGHT AS STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED...INCLUDING SPOTTER ACTIVATION. PERSONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID
WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS LIMITED AHEAD OF SYSTEM.