A strong mid level speed max will lift into northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. Moderate elevated instability combined with strong deep
layer shear will support a few severe thunderstorms with the
potential for hail to the size of half dollars. The limited severe
weather potential will persist through tonight with a continued
threat for mainly large hail.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts
of the area Monday morning, with additional showers and
thunderstorms likely to develop Monday afternoon into Monday
night as a slow-moving cold front moves into the region. A few of
these thunderstorms will likely be severe, with both large hail
and damaging winds possible. The most likely area to see any
severe weather will be across eastern Oklahoma and perhaps into
far western Arkansas as well.
In addition to the severe thunderstorm potential, the threat of
locally heavy rainfall will increase Monday night due to the slow
movement of the front. With the upper level system expected to be
slow to push east of the area, the heavy rainfall potential will
linger through Tuesday night. Storm total rainfall amounts in the
2 to 5 inch range, with isolated totals to 7 inches, continue to
appear likely, which could lead to both river flooding and
isolated flash flooding.